Pakistan could default after June if IMF deal fails: Moody’s
Moody’s Investor Service says that Pakistan could default if it does not receive a bailout from the International Monetary Fund as its financing options beyond June remain “uncertain”.
“We consider that Pakistan will meet its external payments for the remainder of this fiscal year ending in June,” Grace Lim was quoted as saying by Bloomberg. “However, Pakistan’s financing options beyond June are highly uncertain. Without an IMF program, Pakistan could default given its very weak reserves.”
The rating agency’s analyst in Singapore said that they consider Pakistan will meet its external payments for the remainder of this fiscal year ending in June. However, “beyond June they are highly uncertain”.
“Without an IMF program, Pakistan could default given its very weak reserves.”
So far Pakistan has failed to meet certain conditions placed by the Washington-based lender for a $6.5 billion bailout programme. The delay in the grant is reportedly due to unstable political conditions in the country.
On Tuesday, dollar bonds were indicated at 34.58 cents on the dollar – the lowest since November. The rupee has been trading near a record low.
An engagement with the IMF beyond June would support additional financing from other multilateral and bilateral partners, which could reduce default risk, she said.
Pakistan’s foreign-exchange reserves — which stand at $4.5 billion — remain extremely low and sufficient to cover only about one month of imports, she added.
Moreover, Andrew Wood, an analyst at S&P in Singapore, termed the ongoing loan deal between Pakistan and IMF “important for fiscal policy reforms”.
“Agreement on the current review cycle could also coalesce more confidence for other bilateral and multilateral lenders to Pakistan,” he concluded.
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